Greatest Political Upsets in US History

Truman defeats Dewey (1948)

Every major poll, pundit, and the Chicago Tribune itself had Thomas Dewey winning in a landslide, so much so that the paper printed 'DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN' before votes were even counted. Harry Truman crisscrossed the country on a scrappy whistle-stop tour, hammering the 'Do-Nothi

Year: 1948Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: 13 ptsShock Factor: 10/10Final Margin: 4.5 pts

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Eric Cantor loses to Dave Brat (2014)

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor outspent economics professor Dave Brat by roughly 40-to-1 and was up by double digits in his own campaign's internal polling days before the vote. Brat's grassroots, anti-amnesty message stunned the party establishment, making Cantor the first si

Year: 2014Office/Race: House Primary (VA-7)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: 34 ptsShock Factor: 9/10Final Margin: 11 pts

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Lisa Murkowski's write-in comeback (2010)

After losing the Republican primary to Tea Party favorite Joe Miller, Lisa Murkowski did something no U.S. Senate candidate had pulled off since Strom Thurmond in 1954: she won the general election as a write-in. Voters had to correctly spell her name on the ballot, and enough of

Year: 2010Office/Race: Senate (Alaska, General)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: —Shock Factor: 9/10Final Margin: 4 pts

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Trump defeats Clinton (2016)

Nearly every national poll and forecasting model gave Hillary Clinton a comfortable edge, with some giving her over a 90% win probability on election morning. Donald Trump's narrow sweep of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania flipped the electoral map despite losing the popular

Year: 2016Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: 3 ptsShock Factor: 9/10Final Margin: -2 pts

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Hayes edges Tilden (1876)

Samuel Tilden won the popular vote by roughly three points and appeared headed for the presidency, but disputed returns in three Southern states threw the outcome into chaos. A backroom deal — the Compromise of 1877 — handed Rutherford B. Hayes the White House by a single elector

Year: 1876Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: —Shock Factor: 8/10Final Margin: -3 pts

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Doug Jones defeats Roy Moore (2017)

In one of the reddest states in the country, Democrat Doug Jones overcame sexual misconduct allegations swirling around Republican Roy Moore to win a U.S. Senate seat Alabama hadn't given a Democrat since 1992. Write-in votes and depressed GOP turnout sealed a margin of under two

Year: 2017Office/Race: Senate (Alabama, Special)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: 5 ptsShock Factor: 8/10Final Margin: 1.5 pts

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez upsets Joe Crowley (2018)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old former bartender with no campaign infrastructure, took on ten-term incumbent and House Democratic Caucus chair Joe Crowley, who hadn't faced a primary challenger in 14 years and was seen as a possible future Speaker. She beat him by 15 poin

Year: 2018Office/Race: House Primary (NY-14)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: —Shock Factor: 8/10Final Margin: 15 pts

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Jesse Ventura wins Minnesota governor (1998)

A former pro wrestler and radio shock jock running on the Reform Party line, Jesse Ventura was polling a distant third behind well-funded Republican and Democratic nominees just weeks out. A surge of young and independent voters, energized by his blunt outsider style, carried him

Year: 1998Office/Race: Governor (Minnesota)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: 20 ptsShock Factor: 8/10Final Margin: 3 pts

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Jefferson vs. Adams and Burr (1800)

Thomas Jefferson's Democratic-Republicans ousted incumbent John Adams, but a flaw in the Constitution left Jefferson tied in electoral votes with his own running mate, Aaron Burr, throwing the election to the House of Representatives. It took 36 ballots and backroom maneuvering b

Year: 1800Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: —Shock Factor: 7/10Final Margin: —

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Obama overtakes Clinton in the 2008 primary

Hillary Clinton entered the Democratic primary as the presumptive nominee, leading first-term senator Barack Obama by wide margins in national polling throughout 2007. Obama's disciplined delegate strategy and a game-changing win in the Iowa caucuses flipped the race, and he edge

Year: 2008Office/Race: President (Democratic Primary)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: 20 ptsShock Factor: 7/10Final Margin: 2 pts

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Scott Brown wins Ted Kennedy's Senate seat (2010)

Massachusetts hadn't elected a Republican senator in decades, and Democrat Martha Coakley was expected to coast to Ted Kennedy's old seat. Scott Brown, campaigning in a pickup truck, surged from a huge deficit in the campaign's final weeks to win by five points. His victory cost

Year: 2010Office/Race: Senate (Massachusetts, Special)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: 17 ptsShock Factor: 7/10Final Margin: 5 pts

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Lincoln wins a fractured 1860 election

A relatively obscure one-term congressman from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln wasn't even on the ballot in ten Southern states, yet he won the presidency outright in a fractured four-way race against a divided Democratic Party. His victory was so unthinkable to the South that seven st

Year: 1860Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: —Shock Factor: 6/10Final Margin: 10 pts

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Wellstone upsets Boschwitz (1990)

College professor Paul Wellstone ran a shoestring, green-bus campaign against two-term incumbent Rudy Boschwitz, who vastly outspent him and was considered a lock for reelection. Wellstone's folksy ads and populist message flipped the race in the final weeks for a three-point win

Year: 1990Office/Race: Senate (Minnesota)Pre-Vote Polling Deficit: 15 ptsShock Factor: 6/10Final Margin: 3 pts

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Wilson wins amid a split GOP (1912)

A Republican split between incumbent William Howard Taft and insurgent Theodore Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party handed the presidency to relatively untested New Jersey governor Woodrow Wilson. Wilson won with less than 42% of the popular vote, one of the lowest winning shares in his

Year: 1912Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: —Shock Factor: 5/10Final Margin: 14 pts

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Jackson's revenge win over Adams (1828)

Four years after losing the 'corrupt bargain' of 1824 despite winning the popular vote, Andrew Jackson returned with a brutal, personality-driven campaign against incumbent John Quincy Adams. Jackson's frontier populism and expanded voter rolls delivered a decisive rout that ushe

Year: 1828Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: —Shock Factor: 5/10Final Margin: 12 pts

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Carter's outsider win (1976)

A little-known one-term Georgia governor and peanut farmer, Jimmy Carter began his campaign polling in the low single digits with near-zero national name recognition. Riding post-Watergate distrust of Washington insiders, he outlasted a crowded Democratic field and then narrowly

Year: 1976Office/Race: PresidentPre-Vote Polling Deficit: 30 ptsShock Factor: 5/10Final Margin: 2 pts

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